CVSN Premier League 26/27 Predictions

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So this is a little different from local soccer news, but I think it would be interesting to look back and see how right or wrong I am. I hope I'm semi-close, but we'll see. Also, to be upfront about my bias, I am an Arsenal fan, so take that placement with whatever doubts you want. I think this year is the most competitive and unpredictable English season in years. Pep Guardiola has finally left (🙌🏽, as an Arsenal fan), and although Enzo Maresca is a top coach, I'm not convinced he can handle the dressing room. Same goes for Andoni Iraola, who has a lot of pressure taking over Liverpool, which just won the league 2 years ago. Ex-Real Madrid Coaches, Xabi Alonso and Álvaro Arbeloa will make the league more competitive for everyone. Then De Zerbi has completely overhauled Spurs' squad, with hopes of leading them back to a top-6 finish. Only time will tell.

I'll go in reverse order with some explanation of their ranking.

And yes, I'm late, but I'm sticking to my original predictions without looking at the first gameweek results.

20. Hull City

I want the promoted teams to be good. I really do, but they need to put together a really, really good team just to stay up in the Premier League regularly. I don't see a strong team, either physically or technically. I hope all the new teams prove me wrong, but they're not giving much hope. Sergej Jakirovic is a smart manager, but I'm not too sure they can maintain the quality over a grueling Premier League season. I might be wrong, and I don't think they'll be horrible, but they'll have a tough time in the top flight by the end.

19. Ipswich

I really hope Ipswich can perform miracles, but given Gary O'Neil's 30% win rate with Bournemouth and Wolves, I don't see survival in their cards. Just like Hull City, though, I don't think they'll be complete pushovers. It feels like promoted teams are trying to fight the immediate relegation curse by going the Leeds/Sunderland route. Usually, new teams have a big squad overhaul and struggle to mesh old and new players. Now, new teams are trying to go 'pound for pound', play more attacking, physical football, and keep up with the top flight's high speed. It might work for some games, but just like Hull, I see it falling apart by the end of the season. Both teams lack depth, which is needed when those inevitable injuries hit.

18. Nott'm Forest

Ooh man, this one is kind of a stretch, but I'm not blaming the manager entirely. Oliver Glasner is a very talented coach given his recent trophy success, but I'm starting to worry his magic will fade. Partly because of the chaotic environment at Forest, with their 5th coach in about a year. Glasner might be able to pull it out given the squad has big-money names and experienced players, but they're not his players. I fear him taking over someone else's project, and since most of those players were battling relegation last year, they are going to self-implode. Glasner will be frustrated, and so will the owner, and they'll have another new manager failing to keep them up. This could be any team with a new coach this season, but this one seems the most volatile.

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17. Coventry City

I know, I know, I know. How can I place them out of the relegation zone with all the other teams looking better on paper? I'm not trying to ragebait or anything. I'm not too sure, but I know one newly promoted team will stay up, and I'm betting on Coventry. Why?

Not too sure, but Frank Lampard, a Chelsea legend, has coached in the Premier League twice with Chelsea and with Everton. While not entirely great with a 9% and 27% win rate in last time around, he had a 52% win rate in his first Chelsea spell. Are Coventry the same team as Chelsea? Definitely not, but unlike his last spells in the Prem, he has built this project to survive the top flight. Very doubtful, as they feel like minnows of the league but it might just happen.

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16. Crystal Palace

The lower end of the table is always difficult since the league is so unpredictable, but this year even more with the influx of top managers. Pierre Sage is one of many new faces joining the English league to compete with the elite managers. He's a relatively new coach to the top 5 leagues, as are most of the coaches this year, since many are so young. Still he announced himself by taking over Lyon in their rocky period and rejuvenated them with a 59% win rate. His next job at Lens is even more impressive, given PSG's league dominance.

While ending the season trophyless, with a 70% win rate that left PSG in a shaky title race, and finishing 2nd, it was an intense season to have. Given all that, I think he'll just barely manage to adjust to his new settings.

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15. Bournemouth

Now Palace and Bournemouth feel very similar, in that they both have new young-ish managers with a good European reputation but no English league experience. Also, both are taking over for teams that 'overperformed' last season but still have good, talented players. Palace's form might have suffered due to Europe, but game fatigue is always a big adjustment for smaller clubs. Both teams now have to play the Europa League, and it's going to stretch and stress the players out. Marco Rose, previously at Borussia Dortmund (59% // 1.8 Pts) and RB Leipzig (55% // 1.8 Pts), is another top European coach looking to influence the English game. His strong record with two big clubs, despite sour endings, gives me hope he'll make it through to the end of the season.

14. Sunderland

Sunderland, just like these last two teams, had overperformed last season, but Sunderland was the biggest surprise of them all, given their recent promotion. Now it's back to reality for them, as second-season syndrome will start to hit but won't fully catch them. Regis Le Bris only has a 41% win rate with Sunderland, and although they built a tough team with decent depth, I think some cracks will begin to show. Xhaka is such a baller; I loved him at Arsenal, but I think asking him back to the Premier League is going to expire soon, since his peak was outside of England. It's such an intense league, and getting short-term fix (older, aging) players is a big gamble because that quality/speed goes quickly. Xhaka probably won't underperform, but the team will have a harder time than last year.

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13. Leeds

Like many bottom-half teams, it's going to be a fall from last season's overperformance. Even though they finished lower than Sunderland, Leeds feels like they built a better long-term project. Daniel Farke has managed in the Premier League before, and like Lampard, not exactly the best memories. I think they both learned from those failures and have seen firsthand how difficult the league can be. A 42% win rate at Norwich isn't the greatest record, but given how limited he was there vs Leeds, the foundation he built is night and day. He did struggle last season at the start, but he really turned it around by wintertime and felt the comfort of not worrying about relegation for a while. But more managers, different systems, and more competition mean they'll have to do it all over again.

12. Fulham

This is where it gets interesting. Fulham have hired a former Real Madrid player and manager. I never thought the crossover would happen, but here we are. While he may not be Ronaldo or Ancelotti, he was a top player and briefly a top manager too. Just like playing, coaching for Real Madrid isn't for the weak and inexperienced. Just ask Solari, Lopetegui, Benitez or even Xabi Alonso. The difference with Alonso, though, is he actually had the team winning; he just couldn't control the dressing room, which isn't a tactical issue. But more on that later.. Arbeloa did quite a job taking over such a toxic Real Madrid team, and they'll really benefit from Mourinho's ego check. His willingness to take over such a messy project and not crumble under the pressure is an achievement in itself. I think he has good tactics and ideas, but he'll need a short adjustment period to the league. Sometimes coaches want to play fluid football but have harder games against those that don't engage or sit deep. Looking forward to seeing them play though.

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11. Brentford

Ehhhh. I don't want to be rude, but with all this influx of new managers and playstyles, it seems like everyone has new identities. Everyone but Brentford. Now, not saying it's not good football/soccer/futbol, but it gives very safe football that you know will give good results. Not great, not going to win-the-league type ball, but they'll give everyone a tough fight. Like Crystal Palace and Fulham of the past years, just comfortably mid-table. 10 -13th seems like the perfect spot for them, but they were one of the overperformers last season. Keith Andrews led them to 9th, but last season was not nearly as competitive as this year's. They are a really well-run club, as shown by Andrews' seamless takeover of the team, so they'll be fine this season but not challenging for Europe.

10. Everton

So when I said everyone but Brentford feels like brand-new teams and cultures? Yeah, no, I LIED. Everton is the original Brentford. Just a decent Premier League team that knows what it takes to survive and give every team a tough time but won't be challenging for titles. David Moyes had a 42% win rate in his first Everton spell, and a 45% win rate with West Ham, but so many new coaches and tactics will be the true test of Moyes' longevity. They could slip to 13th or even 15th if all the new coaches take off with their new clubs, but I'm giving the experienced coach the benefit of the doubt. It's going to be a revealing year, and most likely will try to leave Everton back in the Premier League mainstays.

9. Brighton

I like what Brighton are trying to do and respect their progressive outlook towards running a soccer club. Always trying to be innovative and one of the first clubs to incorporate data science into club scouting, training, and overall structure. Big proponents of video analysis as well, Brighton carry themselves like an elite-level club when they're the least reputable team in the top 10. Compared to the massive history and trophy cabinets the other clubs have, Brighton have slipped into comfortable upper-table status. Which proves that sometimes you gotta fake it to make it. Fabian Hurzeler has managed a respectable 43% win rate so far and looks like they will continue to finish top 10. Losing Baleba to Manchester United will not affect them, as their squad pathways and hierarchy are well planned.

8. Newcastle

The closer we get to the top, the finer the margins become. Like I keep repeating, so many new managers mean so many different variables and outcomes. Many teams are trying to establish themselves as constant contenders and maintain top-flight status. The separation between those who will succeed and those who will fail is between those clubs that are prepared, proactive, and productive. Newcastle have returned to become serious contenders after going through their tough, banter-filled Mike Ashley era. Eddie Howe did a good job of finally getting silverware, but you could see his burnout taking its toll on the team. Matthias Jaissle seems like a perfect direct replacement for Howe, just like Andrews took over Thomas Frank. Both clubs are so well-tuned that managerial choices become as important as player scouting. The transition will be fluid, and Jaissle will bring life back to a team that needed a new cycle. With a 67% win rate over 3 years at Al Ahli, I think he'll bring them back to a top 8 finish.

7. Spurs

oh spurs. ooh spurrrss. Trying not to let my Gunners bias spill out and influence the predictions, I actually respect Roberto De Zerbi and his tactics. Tottenham.. kind of.. I guess.

But regardless of rivalries, De Zerbi is tactically innovative and influential given his last Brighton spell. While there, though, it felt like he had outgrown his pond and needed a bigger project to take over. Then, taking over Marseille and leading them to 2nd place, he got that platform and proved he can do it on a higher level. Ending his Marseille spell with a respectable 57% win rate, had silenced the critics before ending with a management board falling out. Yet, I don't know what Tottenham are planning for the future because all they hire are short-term coach fixes. Conte and Mourinho alone are such volatile managers, but now De Zerbi, who is joining them in the club of hot-tempered managers that fall out with club board members. They'll have another rollercoaster season that is absolutely sure, but they'll also stabilize that sinking ship for a while. How long will De Zerbi stay? Who knows? Do Spurs care? Nope.

6. Aston Villa

From one Arsenal rival to the Villains of the league and the constant nuisance to all title contenders. Unai Emery has perfected the European finish set-up and has maintained a 50% win rate across 4 different clubs. Peaking with a 75% win rate at the very heavily favored PSG, he knows what his teams are capable of and how to win finals. King of the Europa League, but the same magic doesn't work in the Champions League. Every season where he has to play out of his comfort zone, he struggles a bit. So with a tough Champions League campaign on the side, Villa will stay outside the top 4.

5. Man Utd

Okay, some of you will be mad, i'm soorryy. But I just am not feeling optimistic about Manchester United. Michael Carrick is a top manager, he beat my Arsenal..TWICE. Yet, I'm not convinced he's at the elite level; yes, hilarious since he beat the champions Arsenal, but his 46% win rate at Middlesbrough is my concern. He might have been able to revitalize the ghost of Manchester United temporarily last season, but it's going to be even harder this year. Chelsea, Newcastle, and Spurs were non-contenders last year, but now that everyone has reinforced properly, United will have those cracks revealed. Decent coach like Ole but no Sir Alex Ferguson.

4. Liverpool

How do you surprise everyone by winning the title in your debut season, then not even be in contention the next year? Arne Slot's impact will stain the club, regardless of the league trophy win. Having fallen out with club legend Mo Salah says it all. To go from beloved coach to someone fans can't wait to get rid of. Now, despite last season's slip-up (oops), Andoni Iraola is actually exciting for all Reds fans. Leading a Bournemouth team from 15th place to a top 6 finish while playing attacking football was all the evidence Liverpool needed. While having a relatively low win rate of 38% is a bit worrying, considering how little prestige the club had, it's a huge achievement. They'll be back to playing attractive football that fans miss from the Klopp days, but not all results will go their way. A transition season that sees them fight for the title but miss the top 3.

3. Man City

How do you replace the most influential manager of our generation and maybe all time?

Just hire his clone. Ok, sorry, cheap joke. But looks aside, these managers don't only share appearance; they share philosophies. Well, not exactly, but similar in that they want to control games and are the most calculated possession obsessors. Enzo Maresca has been here before, not just with Chelsea, but actually at City in 2021. An impressive record: a 68% win rate with Leicester and 60% WR with Chelsea, and both teams have since self-imploded without his guidance. Since he was the main contributor to the success, you would think the transition to another massive responsibility would be seamless. I'm not too confident because these dressing rooms are very different environments. Previously, he was leading younger players to realize their full potential and didn't have massive expectations. City has been accustomed to winning relentlessly, and a dressing room full of experienced players is harder to lead than a young, malleable team. Maresca will struggle with the pressure of being Guardiola's heir and might settle for a domestic cup like the EFL or FA Cup.

2. Chelsea

Now this is the scariest newcomer of them all. Real Madrid might have stained his reputation a bit, but I think he stood his ground and realized they were the problem, not him.

Let's not pretend like he didn't make Bayer Leverkusen Invincibles just 3 years ago. An incredible 64% WR at Bayer and an even more impressive 71% WR in his short time in Madrid is proof he's the real deal. Then put him in a top club with a talented and young squad, and it's a nightmare for the entire league. It will not be perfect, and I can't imagine him turning Chelsea into Invincibles, but they'll give title winners a very difficult battle. They are perfectly primed to have a really good season and have to end up with a trophy somewhere.

1. Arsenal

COME ON YOU GUNNERSS

I mean.. was there any doubt?

Probably showing my bias, but honestly, I believe Arsenal still have what it takes to stay champions. Been watching Arsenal since 2010; this is the best version of the team since. I know all the fans want the Champions League now that we ended our English trophy drought, but knowing Arteta, why stop? If you have a team capable of being champions, why not be champions on all fronts? Why only prioritize one? I can see us making a big push in Europe, and it almost worries me, but I try to be positive. Because if you want to be a successful club, you can't settle for good enough; the most important season is the one you're playing now. And if you're playing for success, you have to try to win everything.

BUT if we end up with the Champions League trophy and no Premier title, that's still a win in my book. The expectations of big clubs are that you have to win it all, even if it's not realistic.

That's the game.

Let me know how wrong, right, happy, confused, or my predictions made you. Leave your own ranking or list in the comments, and we can see who's a time-traveler. Sorry for leaving this post so late in the summer, but I'm trying to get more updates and posts out! Spread the word, and don't be afraid to connect with the community. Thank you all supporters in this CVSN community.

Ivan Esquivel

Founder, CVSN

Wednesday, 26 August